IHS Predicts 21 Million Self-Driving Cars to be Sold by 2035

Consumers and regulators may have their doubts about self-driving cars but IHS Automotive has forecasted that there will be 21 million self-driving cars on the roads by 2035 inclusive of semi-autonomous vehicles. The biggest market is expected to be the United States which is still dealing with regulatory issues and the concept of liability in the event of accidents. Nevertheless by 2020, thousands of such vehicles will be on US roads and this will grow to about 4.5 million vehicles by 2035.

Japan is expected to be another big market in the run up to the 2020 summer Olympics in Toyo with at least 1.2 million vehicles to have some degree of self-driving ability in Japan and South Korea, by 2035.The Chinese market is also expected to be quite significant, with a projection of 5.7 million vehicles to be by 2035. In the MENA region, at least one million vehicles with some level of autonomy are expected to be sold by 2035.

“Global sales of autonomous vehicles will reach nearly 600,000 units in 2025,” Egil Juliussen, director of research at IHS Automotive, said in a statement. “Our new forecast reflects a 43 percent compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2035 — a decade of substantial growth, as driverless and self-driving cars alike are more widely adopted in all key global automotive markets.”

Some of the factors that contributed to this large projected figure included current announcements of research in this field by leading automotive companies, breakthrough innovations in this segment and joint projects between auto manufacturers and tech startups.

Within the United States, some companies like Michigan, Florida, California and Nevada have already made testing of autonomous vehicles on public roads legal while others have not. More developments are expected this summer from the NHTSA with respect to guidelines to companies, states and policymakers.

According to Carlson, future mobility will involve different combinations of various modes and technologies, with autonomous vehicles playing a crucial role. He said, “IHS expects entirely new vehicle segments to be created, in addition to traditional vehicles adding autonomous capabilities. Consumers gain new choices in personal mobility to complement mass transit, and these new choices will increasingly use battery, electric and other efficient means of propulsion.”