The International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) is an International Body dedicated to increase
the transparency of the world rubber market and strengthening the international
cooperation on rubber issues. The IRSG Secretariat publishes comprehensive data on
production, usage, trade and prices- covering both natural rubber (NR) and synthetic rubber
(SR). On a biannual basis the World Rubber Industry Outlook (WRIO) presents the latest
long-term forecasts for the next ten years, covering the world economy as well as the
automotive, tyre and rubber sectors.
The December 2021 edition of the World Rubber Industry Outlook (WRIO) is now available.
The current forecast in WRIO comprises two economic scenarios: Base Case Scenario rooted
from the IMF’s base line GDP forecast; Downside Scenario which imply the continuation of
the of the COVID-19 in the near-to-medium term and assess its implications for the rubber
economy. Advanced economies seem to be more negatively impacted than emerging market
economies and a gradual recovery back toward Base Scenario will only commence from 2026.
The total rubber demand is estimated to recover by 9.4% in 2021 (y-o-y), reaching 29.57
million tonnes, exceeding the pre-pandemic level. The strong rebound was supported by
pent-up demand from both tyre and non-tyre sectors, especially in the first half of 2021. The
global rubber demand in tyre sector is estimated to recover by 8.6% in 2021 from a deeper
contraction (-8.1%) experienced in 2020. A stronger recovery projected for non-tyre sector
(10.5%) is driven by continuing surge in demand for rubber products in the global healthcare
industry and stronger recovery of rubber products in the supply chain of mobility. Total
rubber demand is forecasted to moderate to 3.6% in 2022 and expected to grow on an
average by 2.3% during 2023-2030 under the Base Scenario, slightly lower than our last
forecast in July.
The global NR demand surged by 9.4% in 2021 (y-o-y), reaching 13.88 million tonnes, owing
to sharp recovery expected in CV replacement segment in the mature and emerging markets.
The world SR demand increased by 9.5% reaching 15.69 million tonnes in 2021 (y-o-y) and is
forecast to further expand by 4.2% in 2022 supported by solid growth in the US, China,
Russia and India.
Natural rubber production recovered by 5.7% in 2021 (y-o-y), reaching 13.79 million tonnes,
still lower than its 2018 peak. Resurgence of Covid-19 variants in major producing countries
which later led to restriction measures on supply chain and labour shortage have contributed
to the slower recovery in NR production. Total NR production is forecast to further grow by
3.5%, reaching 14.27 million tonnes in 2022 and exceeding the pre-pandemic 2019 level. NR
production growth is estimated to moderate to 3.7% in 2023.
All IRSG publications are available free of charge for Member Governments and members of
the Panel of Associates.
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *
© 2017 Morjan Media LLC. All Rights Reserved.